This analysis is based on the article “Bihar: It’s business as usual as climate change ensures drought despite flood — and nobody bats an eye” which appeared in Down To Earth on October 16, 2024. The article emphasizes the need to recognize the obstacles associated with Climate Change on Bihar’s Rainfall Patterns and Agriculture.
The Unending Wrath of Climate Change in Bihar
The wrath of climate change, which Bihar feels virtually annually, seems to have no end. Floods and droughts are now such routine events that they hardly ever make headlines. Millions of impoverished citizens are displaced every year by floods and droughts, forcing them to work as cheap laborers throughout and occasionally outside the nation.
With the monsoon officially ending this week, the state of Bihar still has a 20% rainfall shortfall this year, despite the abnormally delayed floods in the north. For the third year in a row, Bihar has had a subpar monsoon, and the state saw a 23% decrease in rainfall last year.
Monsoon Deficit: A Recurring Crisis for Bihar
Officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Patna have expressed grave worry over the past ten years that Bihar has been experiencing sparse and irregular rainfall. Down To Earth (DTE) was informed by SK Patel, a meteorological scientist at IMD-Patna, that Bihar received 798.3 mm of rainfall as opposed to the typical 992.2 mm, or 193.9 mm less. The lack of rainfall is not beneficial for farmers or agriculture. Climate change is likely to perpetuate this pattern of low monsoon rainfall, according to Patel.
In June 2024, the flood-prone state received 78.4 mm of rain, compared to the average of 163.3 mm, resulting in a 52% rainfall deficit. In July 2024, the state received 241.3 mm of rain, compared to the average of 340.5 mm, resulting in another 29% shortfall.
Bihar experienced a four percent rainfall deficit in August 2024, with 260.3 mm falling short of the average 271.9 mm. The state gained 218.5 mm of rain in September 2024 as opposed to the average of 216.5 mm, resulting in a 1% excess of rainfall. Only 53 days out of the four months that the monsoon season occurred in Bihar saw rainfall of varying intensities, as stated by officials.
What is more concerning, though, is that 19 out of 38 districts in Bihar reported a rainfall shortfall this time, ranging from 20% to over 53%. This has an impact on Kharif crops and is expected to have an impact on rabi crops as well since the farmland is lacking in moisture.
Alarming Rainfall Shortfalls in Key Districts
The majority of these districts—Bhagalpur, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Purnea, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Begusarai, Saharsa, Madhepura, Samastipur, and Saran—are vulnerable to flooding. The most recent statistics from the IMD Patna showed that the rainfall shortfall in the Saran district was 53%, in the Vaishali district it was 49%, and in the Muzaffarpur and Samastipur districts, it was 46% and 44%, respectively.
Yet, according to IMD Patna, this year’s rainfall was above average in just a few districts, including Nawada, Arwal, Sheikhpura, Aurangabad, and Gaya. Oddly, droughts often strike these four south Bihar districts. It is no secret that climate change has caused the monsoon to become unusual and variable, according to Abdus Sattar, a leading scientist at the Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University’s Centre for Advanced Studies on Climate Change in Pusa. He spoke with DTE about this. Acute conditions result from the state having fewer rainy days due to the unpredictable monsoon.
We have been closely examining how the state’s rainfall patterns have altered recently as a result of a negative climate change. It is most likely to persist and mostly impact kharif crops. To reduce the effects of climate change on agriculture, the government and farmers must collaborate. To keep up with the trends, they must switch to other crops, he continued.
Bihar’s paddy farmers are concerned that the current weather will no doubt have an impact on the yield of their crops. For most farmers in Bihar who rely on rain-fed crops, normal monsoon rainfall is crucial to setting out a successful harvest.
Hardworking farmers have transplanted paddy seedlings in almost 95% of the target this year; the government forecasts that 3.654 million hectares will be planted to paddy this year. State agriculture department representatives informed DTE that standing crops, primarily paddy were severely devastated by the catastrophic floods that struck north Bihar. An official estimate states the floods affected 0.24 million hectares. However, about 33% of the 91,000 hectares have damage. After high monsoon rainfall caused the rivers to swell, barrages discharged record volumes of water, resulting in severe floods that destroyed large swaths of standing crops.
Barrage Water Release: Escalating Flood Risks
The Water Resource Department (WRD) has given an official update stating that on September 28, 601,600 cusecs of water were discharged from Birpur Barrage on the Kosi. The barrage’s fifty-six sluice gates were all opened. Similarly, on September 28, all 36 sluice gates of the Valmiki Nagar Barrage on the Gandak were opened, resulting in the release of a total of 554,475 cusecs of water from the barrage. Officials from the WRD acknowledged that they had not anticipated water levels to climb to such enormous heights that water had to be released from barrages.
Historical Rainfall Data Highlights Climate Shift
Comparably, the Gandak River’s Valmiki Nagar Barrage is releasing more water than it has since 2003. On the website of WRD, Bihar is the state most affected by flooding, making up over 17.2% of the nation’s total area susceptible to flooding. Of Bihar’s 9.416 million hectares, 6.88 million hectares—or 76% of north Bihar and 73% of south Bihar—are vulnerable to flooding. Currently, the state’s 38 districts have 28 designated as flood-prone areas.
It is noteworthy to mention that in the past ten years, Bihar has seen seven instances of rainfall deficiency and just three instances of surplus rainfall. In 2019, 1,050 mm of rain fell in the state; in 2020, 1,272 mm; and in 2021, 1,044 mm. According to official IMD data, Bihar saw 1393 mm of rain in 2019, the most in the past ten years and an excess of 34%. According to climate scientists, Bihar’s bad monsoon is a blatant sign of shifting rainfall patterns, endangering the estimated 120 million people who live there and depend on agriculture.